College
Park, MD: According to a new PIPA/Knowledge
Networks poll, a majority of Americans (57%)
continue to believe that before the war Iraq
was providing substantial support to al Qaeda,
including 20% who believe that
Iraq
was directly
involved in the September 11 attacks. Forty-five
percent believe that evidence that Iraq was
supporting al Qaeda has been found. Sixty percent
believe that just before the war Iraq either
had weapons of mass destruction (38%) or a major
program for developing them (22%).
Despite
statements by Richard Clarke, David Kay, Hans
Blix and others, few Americans perceive most
experts as saying the contrary. Only 15% said
they are hearing “experts mostly agree
Iraq was not providing substantial support to
al Qaeda,” while 82% either said that
“experts mostly agree Iraq was providing
substantial support” (47%) or “experts
are evenly divided on the question” (35%).
Only 34% said they thought most experts believe
Iraq did not have WMD, while 65% said most experts
say Iraq did have them (30%) or that experts
are divided on the question (35%).
Not
surprisingly, perceptions of what experts are
saying are highly correlated with beliefs about
prewar Iraq, which in turn are highly correlated
with support for the decision to go to war.
Perhaps
most relevant politically, perceptions of what
the experts are saying are also highly correlated
with intentions to vote for the President in
the upcoming election. Among those who perceived
experts as saying that Iraq had WMD, 72% said
they would vote for Bush and 23% said they would
vote for Kerry, while among those who perceived
experts as saying that Iraq did not have WMD,
23% said they would vote for Bush and 74% for
Kerry.
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Among those who
perceived experts as saying that Iraq had supported
al Qaeda, 62% said they would vote for Bush
and 36% said they would vote for Kerry. Among
those who perceived experts as saying that Iraq
was not supporting al Qaeda, just 13% said they
would vote for Bush and 85% for Kerry.
Steven Kull, director of PIPA,
comments: “These correlations do not establish
what is causal. However, multivariate regression
analyses suggest that changes in perceptions
of what experts are saying could have some impact
on the public’s beliefs, attitudes about
the war, and even voting in the presidential
election.”
Beliefs about prewar Iraq appear
to be also sustained by perceptions of claims
by the Bush administration. Fifty-six percent
said it was their impression that the Bush administration
is claiming the US has found clear evidence
that Saddam Hussein was working closely with
al Qaeda, and 38% perceived the administration
saying the US has found clear evidence that
just before the war, Iraq had weapons of mass
destruction.
Interestingly, varying perceptions
of US troop fatalities does not appear to have
much impact. Asked to estimate the number of
US troop fatalities in Iraq, the median estimate
was fairly accurate at 500. However, estimates
varied widely, providing the opportunity to
assess attitudes among those with high estimates
as compared to those with low estimates. In
fact, there were no significant differences
between these groups when it came to support
for the war or intention to vote for the President.
On the other hand, a factor
that did appear to be strikingly influential
was perceptions of world public opinion on the
war with Iraq. Despite polling showing that
the majority of world public opinion is opposed
to the US war with Iraq, only 41% were aware
that this is the case. A 59% majority was unaware
of this, with 21% saying that a majority of
world public opinion favored the US having gone
to war, and 38% saying “views are evenly
balanced.”
Among those who knew that world
public opinion opposed the US going to war with
Iraq, only 25% thought that going to war was
the right decision. Among the group that thought
world public opinion was about evenly balanced,
70% said going to war was the right decision,
and among those who perceived world public opinion
as favoring the war, 88% said going to war the
right decision.
Steven Kull comments, “Americans
have always been quite concerned about the international
legitimacy of using military force, as during
the run-up to the war when they very much wanted
UN approval. It may be that when Americans are
aware that world public opinion is critical
this weakens their perception of the international
legitimacy of the decision to go to war, brings
back memories of the Vietnam experience and
softens support for the decision to go to war.”
Perceptions of world public
opinion are also related to voting intentions.
Among those who are aware that world public
opinion is critical of the war, only 22% said
they intended to vote for President Bush’s
reelection (Kerry: 75%). Among those who thought
world public opinion was about evenly balanced,
Bush received support from a modest majority--53%,
with 40% preferring Kerry. In the group that
perceived world public opinion as favoring the
war, 71% said they intended to vote for the
president and only 25% said they would vote
for Kerry.
Steven Kull comments, “Here too these
correlations do not establish what is causal.
However multivariate regression analyses suggest
that changes in perceptions of world public
opinion could have some impact on voting behavior
in the presidential election.”
The poll was conducted with
a nationwide sample of 1,311 respondents from
March 16-22. The margin of error was plus or
minus 2.8%-4.5%, depending on whether the question
was administered to all or part of the sample.
A full report and the questionnaire can be found
at www.pipa.org.
The poll was fielded by Knowledge
Networks using its nationwide panel, which is
randomly selected from the entire adult population
and subsequently provided internet access. For
more information about this methodology, go
to www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.
Funding for this research was
provided by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and
the Ford Foundation.
For more information on the
PIPA/KN study see:
Report
of Findings
Questionnaire
