As the
nation prepares to watch the presidential candidates
debate foreign policy issues, a new PIPA-Knowledge
Networks poll finds that Americans who plan to
vote for President Bush have many incorrect assumptions
about his foreign policy positions. Kerry supporters,
on the other hand, are largely accurate in their
assessments. The uncommitted also tend to misperceive
Bush’s positions, though to a smaller extent
than Bush supporters, and to perceive Kerry’s
positions correctly. Steven Kull, director of
PIPA, comments: “What is striking is that
even after nearly four years President Bush’s
foreign policy positions are so widely misread,
while Senator Kerry, who is relatively new to
the public and reputed to be unclear about his
positions, is read correctly.”
Majorities
of Bush supporters incorrectly assumed that Bush
favors including labor and environmental standards
in trade agreements (84%), and the US being part
of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (69%), the
International Criminal Court (66%), the treaty
banning land mines (72%), and the Kyoto Treaty
on global warming (51%). They were divided between
those who knew that Bush favors building a new
missile defense system now (44%) and those who
incorrectly believe he wishes to do more research
until its capabilities are proven (41%). However,
majorities were correct that Bush favors increased
defense spending (57%) and wants the US, not the
UN, to take the stronger role in developing Iraq’s
new government (70%).
Kerry
supporters were much more accurate in assessing
their candidate’s positions on all these
issues. Majorities knew that Kerry favors including
labor and environmental standards in trade agreements
(90%); the US being part of the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty (77%); the International Criminal
Court (59%); the land mines treaty (79%); and
the Kyoto Treaty on climate change (74%). They
also knew that he favors continuing research on
missile defense without deploying a system now
(68%), and wants the UN, not the US, to take the
stronger role in developing Iraq’s new government
(80%). A plurality of 43% was correct that Kerry
favors keeping defense spending the same, with
35% assuming he wants to cut it and 18% to expand
it.
Many
of the uncommitted (those who say they are not
very sure which candidate they will vote for)
also misread Bush’s position on most issues,
though in most cases this was a plurality, not
a majority. The uncommitted incorrectly believed
that Bush favors including labor and environmental
standards in trade agreements (69%), the US being
part of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (51%),
the International Criminal Court (47% to 31%),
the land mines treaty (50%), and the Kyoto treaty
on global warming (45% to 37%). Only 35% knew
that Bush favors building a new missile defense
system now, while 36% incorrectly believed he
wishes to do more research until its capabilities
are proven, and 22% did not give an answer. Only
41% knew that Bush favors increased defense spending,
while 49% incorrectly assumed he wants to keep
it the same (29%) or cut it (20%). A plurality
of 46% was correct that Bush wants the US, rather
than the UN, to take the stronger role in developing
Iraq’s new government (37% assumed the UN).
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The uncommitted were much more
accurate in assessing Kerry’s positions.
Majorities knew that Kerry favors including labor
and environmental standards in trade agreements
(75%), and the US being part of the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty (60%), the land mines treaty (57%),
and the Kyoto Treaty on global warming (54%),
and wants the US, not the UN, to take the lead
in developing Iraq’s new government (71%).
Pluralities correctly assumed that Kerry favors
US participation in the International Criminal
Court (49 to 30%) and that he favors doing more
research until its effectiveness is proven (46%),
with 26% assuming he does not want to build a
system at all). Thirty-nine percent correctly
assumed that he wants to keep defense spending
the same, but 36% assumed that he wants to cut
it.
PIPA selected these questions
from those asked in polls by the Chicago Council
on Foreign Relations which dealt with issues on
which the presidential candidates have taken clear
and documented positions.
Two other issues, on which neither
candidate’s position can be definitively
established, were also explored. One was in regard
to how the US should deal with the Israel-Palestinian
conflict. Bush supporters were divided about whether
Bush favored taking Israel’s side (43%)
or taking neither side (45%), while the uncommitted
leaned toward the view that Bush favored taking
neither side (47%) more than taking Israel’s
side (30%). Kerry voters mostly assumed that Kerry
favored taking neither side (68%), as did swing
voters (58%).
On the question of whether, as
a general rule, the US should contribute troops
to UN peacekeeping operations, Bush supporters
assumed that Bush would favor doing so (78%) as
did Kerry supporters (58%) and a majority of the
uncommitted (60%). Kerry supporters (73%) also
assume that he would favor contributing to peacekeeping
as do a bare majority of the uncommitted (51%).
However, a plurality of Bush supporters (48%)
assumes that Kerry would prefer to leave the job
to other countries.
The poll was conducted with a
nationwide sample of 959 respondents over September
8-12. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.2-4.0%,
depending on whether the question was administered
to two-thirds or the entire sample. A report and
the questionnaire can be found at www.pipa.org.
The poll was fielded by Knowledge
Networks using its nationwide panel, which is
randomly selected from the entire adult population
and subsequently provided internet access. For
more information about this methodology, go to
www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.
Funding for this research was provided by the
Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
